17일 뉴욕증시에 따르면 미국 상무부 4월 소매판매지수는 전월대비 0.9% 상승한 것으로 나타났다.미국의 소매판매지수는 올 1월 3.8%, 2월 0.8% 그리고 3월에 0.5% 상승했다. 4월의 소매판매는 1월보다는 못하지만 2월과 3월에 비헤서는 오히려 상승폭이 더 커졌다. 미국의 3월 소매판매는 전월 대비 0.5%, 전년 동기 대비 6.9% 상승한 바 있다.
이런 가운데 골드만삭스의 로이드 블랭크파인 수석회장이 불황을 경고해 주목을 끌고있다. 블랭크파인 수석회장은 CBS 뉴스에 출연해 "미국 경제가 불황으로 치닫고 있다는 매우, 매우 높은 위험이 있다"고 말했다. 골드만삭스도 미국 경제성장률 전망치를 올해 2.4%, 내년 1.6%로 하향 조정했다. 당초 올해 2.6%, 내년 2.2%보다 각각 0.2%, 0.6% 낮춘 것이다.
연준은 4월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)에서 0.5%p 금리 인상을 단행했다. 제롬 파월 연준 의장은 일각에서 제기된 0.75%p 인상이란 소위 '자이언트 스텝' 가능성은 일축했지만 오는 6·7월 FOMC에서 0.5%p씩 금리를 인상하는 빅스텝 가능성은 열어뒀다. 장 전문가들은 연준이 다음달 16일 열리는 FOMC에서 0.75%p 금리 인상을 결정할 가능성이 15% 이상이라고 전망하고 있다.
미국 소매판매 로이터통신 발췌
WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased solidly in April as consumers bought motor vehicles amid an improvement in supply and frequented restaurants, showing no signs of demand letting up despite high inflation.
Retail sales rose 0.9% last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Data for March was revised higher to show sales advancing 1.4% instead of 0.7% as previously reported.
Retail sales are mostly goods, and are not adjusted for inflation, which appears to have peaked in April. Bars and restaurants are the only services category in the report.
According to the Bank of America, aggregate credit and debit card spending increased 13% year-on-year in April. The bank noted that while inflation was leading to higher spending, it was "clear consumer strength goes beyond this." Consumer price inflation increased 8.3% year-on-year in April.
A tight labor market is generating strong wages and allowing cash-squeezed consumers to take a second job or pick up extra shifts, providing some cushion against inflation. Households also accumulated massive savings during the pandemic, some of which are being deployed to maintain spending.
But with the Federal Reserve adopting an aggressive monetary policy stance to cool demand and bring down inflation, retail sales are expected to slow later this year. The U.S. central bank has increased its policy interest rate by 75 basis points since March. The Fed is expected to hike rates by half a percentage point at each of the next meetings in June and July.
Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 1.0% in April. Data for March was also revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 1.1% instead of 0.7% as previously reported.
Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Last month's solid rise in core retail sales suggests that consumer spending got off to a strong start in the second quarter, a view that is supported by credit and debit card data from several banks showing increased outlays on travel and entertainment.
김대호 글로벌이코노믹 연구소장 tiger8280@g-enews.com