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미국 고용보고서 전문 FOMC 또 "자이언트 스텝" 경고

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미국 고용보고서 전문 FOMC 또 "자이언트 스텝" 경고

①실업률 3.5% ② 임금상승률 5.2% ③ 일자리 52만개 예상보다 너무 좋은 고용보고서 연준 금리인상 폭탄 3번 연속 자이언트 스텝

미국 정부 청사  이미지 확대보기
미국 정부 청사
미국의 고용보고서가 예상보다 너무 좋게 나오면서 연준 FOMC의 자이언트 스텝의 공포가 엄습하고 있다. 미국 뉴욕증시와 비트코인 등 암호 가상화폐는 고용보고서 쇼크에 휘청하고 있다.

미국 노동부는 7월 비농업 일자리가 52만8천 개 증가했다고 밝혔다. 7월의 일자리 증가 폭은 전월의 39만8천 개보다 크게 늘어난 것이다. 다우존스가 집계한 뉴욕증시 전망치 25만8천 개의 두 배를 웃돌았다. 예상보다 훨씬 많았다. 고용보고서에 나타난 미국의 실업률은 3.5%로 전월보다 0.1%포인트 오히려 내려갔다. 실업률은 3.5%는 다우존스 전망치보다 0.1%포인트 낮은 것이다. 시간당 임금 상승률도 더 높아졌다. 시간 당 평균 소득이 전월 대비 0.5%, 1년 전에 비해서는 5.2% 급증했다. 뉴욕증시 추정치를 크게 상회했다. 뉴욕증시의 다우존스는 전월 대비 0.3%, 전년 대비 4.9% 각각 상승할 것으로 예상한바 있다. 이를 크게 상회한 것이다.

미국 고용보고서 전문
Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-22-1585

8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, August 5, 2022

Technical information:

Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps

Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2022

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate

edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job

growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and

business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment

rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey

measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.

The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.

For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two

surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In July, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed

persons edged down to 5.7 million. These measures have returned to their levels in

February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.1 percent) and

Whites (3.1 percent) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.2 percent),

teenagers (11.5 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics

(3.9 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers, at 1.2 million in July,

continued to trend down over the month and is 129,000 lower than in February 2020. The

number of persons on temporary layoff, at 791,000 in July, changed little from the

prior month and has essentially returned to its pre-pandemic level. (See table A-11.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by

269,000 in July to 1.1 million. This measure has returned to its February 2020 level.

The long-term unemployed accounted for 18.9 percent of the total unemployed in July.

(See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, and the employment-population ratio,

at 60.0 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their

February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively). (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 to

3.9 million in July. This rise reflected an increase in the number of persons whose

hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed

part time for economic reasons is below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These

individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time

because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See

table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million

in July, little changed over the month. This measure is above its February 2020 level

of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not

actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable

to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally

attached to the labor force, at 1.5 million, was about unchanged in July. These

individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in

the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were

available for them, numbered 424,000 in July, little changed from the prior month.

(See Summary table A.)

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In July, 7.1 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic,

unchanged from the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or

worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically

because of the pandemic.

In July, 2.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their

employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic--that is, they did not work at all

or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the

pandemic. This measure is little changed from the previous month. Among those who

reported in July that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or

lost business, 25.0 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the

hours not worked, little different from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in July, 548,000 persons were prevented from looking

for work due to the pandemic, little changed from the prior month. (To be counted as

unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on

temporary layoff.)

These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in

May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not

seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months

are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, larger than the average monthly

gain over the prior 4 months (+388,000). Job growth was widespread in July, led by gains

in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. (See

table B-1.)

Total nonfarm employment has increased by 22.0 million since reaching a low in April 2020

and has returned to its pre-pandemic level. Private-sector employment is 629,000 higher

than in February 2020, although several sectors have yet to recover. Government employment

is 597,000 lower than its pre-pandemic level.

In July, leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs, as growth continued in food services

and drinking places (+74,000). However, employment in leisure and hospitality is below

its February 2020 level by 1.2 million, or 7.1 percent.

Employment in professional and business services continued to grow, with an increase of

89,000 in July. Job growth was widespread within the industry, including gains in management

of companies and enterprises (+13,000), architectural and engineering services (+13,000),

management and technical consulting services (+12,000), and scientific research and

development services (+10,000). Employment in professional and business services is 986,000

higher than in February 2020.

Employment in health care rose by 70,000 in July. Job gains occurred in ambulatory health

care services (+47,000), hospitals (+13,000), and nursing and residential care facilities

(+9,000). Employment in health care overall is below its February 2020 level by 78,000,

or 0.5 percent.

Employment in government rose by 57,000 in July but is below its February 2020 level by

597,000, or 2.6 percent. Over the month, employment increased by 37,000 in local government,

mostly in education (+27,000). Employment in local government is below its February 2020

level by 555,000, or 3.8 percent, with the losses split between the education and

non-education components.

Employment in construction increased by 32,000 in July, as specialty trade contractors

added 22,000 jobs. Construction employment is 82,000 higher than in February 2020.

Manufacturing employment increased by 30,000 in July. Employment in durable goods industries

rose by 21,000, with job gains in semiconductors and electronic components (+4,000) and

miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing (+4,000). Employment in manufacturing is 41,000

above its February 2020 level.

In July, social assistance added 27,000 jobs, including a gain of 19,000 in individual

and family services. Since February 2020, employment in social assistance is down by

53,000, or 1.2 percent.

Employment in retail trade increased by 22,000 in July, although it has shown no net

change since March. In July, job gains occurred in food and beverage stores (+9,000) and

general merchandise stores (+8,000). Retail trade employment is 208,000 above its level

in February 2020.

In July, transportation and warehousing added 21,000 jobs. Employment rose in air

transportation (+7,000) and support activities for transportation (+6,000). Employment

in transportation and warehousing is 745,000 above its February 2020 level.

Information employment continued its upward trend in July (+13,000) and is 117,000 higher

than in February 2020.

Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in July (+13,000). Employment

in the industry is 95,000 above its level in February 2020.

Employment in mining rose by 7,000 in July, with gains in support activities for mining

(+4,000) and oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining employment is 96,000 above a recent

low in February 2021.

Employment showed little change over the month in wholesale trade and in other services.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by

15 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $32.27. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings

have increased by 5.2 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production

and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $27.57. (See tables

B-3 and B-8.)

In July, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.6 hours

for the fifth month in a row. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees

held at 40.4 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek

for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained unchanged

at 34.0 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from

+384,000 to +386,000, and the change for June was revised up by 26,000, from +372,000 to

+398,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 higher

than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received

from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the

recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________

The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 2,

2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-22-1585

8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, August 5, 2022

Technical information:

Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps

Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2022

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate

edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job

growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and

business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment

rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey

measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.

The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.

For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two

surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In July, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed

persons edged down to 5.7 million. These measures have returned to their levels in

February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.1 percent) and

Whites (3.1 percent) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.2 percent),

teenagers (11.5 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics

(3.9 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers, at 1.2 million in July,

continued to trend down over the month and is 129,000 lower than in February 2020. The

number of persons on temporary layoff, at 791,000 in July, changed little from the

prior month and has essentially returned to its pre-pandemic level. (See table A-11.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by

269,000 in July to 1.1 million. This measure has returned to its February 2020 level.

The long-term unemployed accounted for 18.9 percent of the total unemployed in July.

(See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, and the employment-population ratio,

at 60.0 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their

February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively). (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 to

3.9 million in July. This rise reflected an increase in the number of persons whose

hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed

part time for economic reasons is below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These

individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time

because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See

table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million

in July, little changed over the month. This measure is above its February 2020 level

of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not

actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable

to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally

attached to the labor force, at 1.5 million, was about unchanged in July. These

individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in

the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were

available for them, numbered 424,000 in July, little changed from the prior month.

(See Summary table A.)

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In July, 7.1 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic,

unchanged from the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or

worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically

because of the pandemic.

In July, 2.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their

employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic--that is, they did not work at all

or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the

pandemic. This measure is little changed from the previous month. Among those who

reported in July that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or

lost business, 25.0 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the

hours not worked, little different from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in July, 548,000 persons were prevented from looking

for work due to the pandemic, little changed from the prior month. (To be counted as

unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on

temporary layoff.)

These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in

May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not

seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months

are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, larger than the average monthly

gain over the prior 4 months (+388,000). Job growth was widespread in July, led by gains

in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. (See

table B-1.)

Total nonfarm employment has increased by 22.0 million since reaching a low in April 2020

and has returned to its pre-pandemic level. Private-sector employment is 629,000 higher

than in February 2020, although several sectors have yet to recover. Government employment

is 597,000 lower than its pre-pandemic level.

In July, leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs, as growth continued in food services

and drinking places (+74,000). However, employment in leisure and hospitality is below

its February 2020 level by 1.2 million, or 7.1 percent.

Employment in professional and business services continued to grow, with an increase of

89,000 in July. Job growth was widespread within the industry, including gains in management

of companies and enterprises (+13,000), architectural and engineering services (+13,000),

management and technical consulting services (+12,000), and scientific research and

development services (+10,000). Employment in professional and business services is 986,000

higher than in February 2020.

Employment in health care rose by 70,000 in July. Job gains occurred in ambulatory health

care services (+47,000), hospitals (+13,000), and nursing and residential care facilities

(+9,000). Employment in health care overall is below its February 2020 level by 78,000,

or 0.5 percent.

Employment in government rose by 57,000 in July but is below its February 2020 level by

597,000, or 2.6 percent. Over the month, employment increased by 37,000 in local government,

mostly in education (+27,000). Employment in local government is below its February 2020

level by 555,000, or 3.8 percent, with the losses split between the education and

non-education components.

Employment in construction increased by 32,000 in July, as specialty trade contractors

added 22,000 jobs. Construction employment is 82,000 higher than in February 2020.

Manufacturing employment increased by 30,000 in July. Employment in durable goods industries

rose by 21,000, with job gains in semiconductors and electronic components (+4,000) and

miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing (+4,000). Employment in manufacturing is 41,000

above its February 2020 level.

In July, social assistance added 27,000 jobs, including a gain of 19,000 in individual

and family services. Since February 2020, employment in social assistance is down by

53,000, or 1.2 percent.

Employment in retail trade increased by 22,000 in July, although it has shown no net

change since March. In July, job gains occurred in food and beverage stores (+9,000) and

general merchandise stores (+8,000). Retail trade employment is 208,000 above its level

in February 2020.

In July, transportation and warehousing added 21,000 jobs. Employment rose in air

transportation (+7,000) and support activities for transportation (+6,000). Employment

in transportation and warehousing is 745,000 above its February 2020 level.

Information employment continued its upward trend in July (+13,000) and is 117,000 higher

than in February 2020.

Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in July (+13,000). Employment

in the industry is 95,000 above its level in February 2020.

Employment in mining rose by 7,000 in July, with gains in support activities for mining

(+4,000) and oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining employment is 96,000 above a recent

low in February 2021.

Employment showed little change over the month in wholesale trade and in other services.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by

15 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $32.27. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings

have increased by 5.2 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production

and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $27.57. (See tables

B-3 and B-8.)

In July, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.6 hours

for the fifth month in a row. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees

held at 40.4 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek

for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained unchanged

at 34.0 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from

+384,000 to +386,000, and the change for June was revised up by 26,000, from +372,000 to

+398,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 higher

than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received

from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the

recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________

The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 2,

2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).


김대호 글로벌이코노믹 연구소장 tiger8280@g-enews.com